🎯 Fewer Films, Leaner Box Office

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Welcome back to another issue of Trendline! We’ve lots of interesting charts to dive into today! 👇️ 

1) US Domestic Box Office collections hasn’t recovered since Covid: US box office revenue in 2024 remained well below pre-Covid levels — not due to weak demand, but reduced supply. Studios released 235 fewer films than in 2019, even as average revenue per title rose +2%.

This points to a strategic shift: major studios like Disney and Paramount are reserving theatrical releases for big IP, while mid-budget and genre films increasingly go straight to streaming. Add strike-related delays and industry-wide cost cuts, and the release slate for 2025 may stay thin — signaling that box office could remain structurally smaller in the streaming era.

2) Philippines outsourcing industry set to cross $50B in revenue by 2028: Outsourcing industry in Philippines has become huge and is set to grow ~6% annually to reach over ~$50B in revenue by 2028, with over 2m people employed! (baseline scenario). For comparison, India’s outsourcing industry is >$170B in yearly revenue (source)

If you feel bullish about the industry, Concentrix and Accenture are two of the largest employers in the industry and are publicly listed stocks.

3) Silver Tsunami in US: US Population over 65 years of age, is set to grow 30% between 2020 to 2030, reaching 73 million by 2030 (or 21% of total population).

While ageing population can create stress on the economy, it also creates opportunities for investors/entrepreneurs, esp. in industries like healthcare (e.g. Stryker), elderly care etc.

PS: Despite the increase in older people, US is in a much better place than other developed G7 economies. Its old age dependency ratio (ratio of people age 65+ / people between ages 15-64) is much lower than countries like Japan, South Korea and Italy

4) Amazon’s moat in e-Commerce: There is still daylight between the avg shipping time (click-to-door) of Amazon US and other ecommerce websites (even as both are trending downward)

This is results of years of investing in building the warehouse and logistics infrastructure which will be really difficult for competitors to build (just ask Shopify).

5) Apple is trading at rich valuation: Apple’s net income has fallen for 2 years straight (from $100 billion in 2022 to $93.7 billion in 2024). However the stock continues to trade at quite rich valuations - even accounting for the recent declines. Current fwd price/earnings multiple is 29.5, and was close to 35.5 not too long ago - its highest ever since 2016.

Apple’s products are struggling for revenue growth (services can carry growth for a while but Apple services rely on its product ecosystem for long term growth).

Will we see a multiple reset for Apple?