🎯 BYD charges ahead as Tesla slumps

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Welcome back to Trendline!

I just got back from a week in Shanghai—home to 25 million people—and was blown away by how many electric cars are on the streets.

The city is full of cars but the traffic is quiet - thanks to abundance of EVs (electric vehicles). I was told by locals that the city govt makes it next to impossible now to get a license plate for a gasoline based car. EV adoption is China will soar in the coming years (and indeed the world over).

Today’s email is focused on EVs and Electricity trends. Let’s dive in 👇️ 

1) BYD stock is charging ahead as Tesla slumps: BYD is one of the largest EV maker in China and the stock is charging ahead (up +52% YTD) compared to Tesla which is in all sorts of trouble, down almost 32% YTD.

BYD recently announced that it can now charge 400 kms in 5 mins making it the fastest charging capability in the world. See second chart in the email below.

BYD is also building a giant car manufacturing plant in China, which once completed, will be bigger than the city of San Francisco. The video of the new factory went viral on Twitter (X).

2) BYD charging outpaces competitors: BYD has developed a new charging technology to charge 400 kms in just 5 mins (~80 kms per minute) - far superior to other competitors and much more than Tesla Model Y, which can only charge to 106 kms in 5 mins.

The charging tech is new and infrastructure has to be built before this is widely available to BYD cars. However, this is promising development in the EV industry where charging time is often a source of anxiety for people.

3) Globally, electric car sales grew by 25% in 2024: Electric car sales worldwide rose by 25%+ YoY in 2024, to reach more than 17 million units sold. More than 2/3rd of electric cars sold in 2024 were in China.

Within the China market, sale of both battery EVs and hybrids have increased YoY. There is an increase in demand for extended range vehicles which is prevalent in China. Additionally subsidies of upto $3000 is provided to encourage consumers to trade in their older gas powered cards.

Electric car sales in the European Union fell by 6%, mainly due to decreased sales in Germany, where purchase subsidies were removed at the end of 2023.

The United States saw sales growth of over 10%, thanks to new models released and tax credits for consumers.

4) Globally, more than 80% of growth in electricity generation is from clean energy: Electricity demand is growing worldwide as developing economies grow and we shift cars to electric vehicles. Mirroring this rise in demand, global electricity generation grew by 4% (or over 1,200 TWh) in 2024. This is a significant acceleration from the avg. growth rate of 2.6% between 2010-2023.

Most of this growth, ~80% of it, is now from clean energy sources - renewables and nuclear.

5) Fossil Fuels is still 60% of all electricity generated globally: While we have shifted most of new generation capacity to renewables/nuclear, fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) still accounts for 60% of all electricity generated globally.  Large countries like China, India and other developing regions still rely on Coal for most of their electricity needs (but renewable mix is growing fast).

This is a significant challenge but also an opportunity as we continue on this path of energy transition.